Intro:
In this analysis, we embark on a journey to reimagine the 2020 QMJHL draft for the Saint John Sea Dogs. Our goal is to assess if our model can supply us with an edge for the draft. We've chosen the 2020 draft for this exercise due to the availability of projections for players from this year onwards. These players are on the verge of entering their 19 year old season, a crucial time for development, making them a suitable focus for our evaluation.
It's important to note that our model's training and testing data do not encompass these players, given their specific circumstances. Moreover, since these players have two years of eligibility remaining, there exists ample opportunity for them to surpass their projections or come close.
Guidelines for the Redraft:
I've established specific rules to guide our redrafting process. I can only consider players who participated in the QMJHL. This approach prevents celebrating potential selections I had ranked highly but did not play as it wouldn't accurately showcase the model's effectiveness in identifying productive players.
For instance, if the Sea Dogs originally chose a player who didn't end up playing in the league, I also assume the same fortune but also highlight some of our top ranked choices available. Our aim here is not to present a hypothetical scenario of choosing a potential QMJHLer with every pick which would be unrealistic. Instead, we strive to spotlight the potential outcomes from the selections that did translate to on-ice performance.
We believe that these rules and restrictions are reasonable, providing a solid framework for our exploration. For those new to the site, at the time of publishing we only have projectable data from the NSMMHL, NBPEIMMHL, QMAAA and NLU18MHL.
A Key Disclaimer:
I've shared this sentiment on twitter, but I want to reiterate it here as well. The intention of this exercise is not to advocate for blind selection based solely on the model's recommendations. If, hypothetically, I were to be consulted for additional insights, incorporating scouting reports and contextual considerations, we would collaborate to make the most suitable choice. The model's projected probabilities shine in the later rounds, where we seek hidden potential. Even if we were confident that a certain player might not be chosen until the 8th round or later, we'd exercise caution in using a 1st or 2nd round pick on them, regardless of the model's output.
With this groundwork established, let's dive into the redrafting process and uncover the intriguing possibilities that lie ahead.
The Draft:
In this segment, we delve into the 2020 QMJHL Draft's Round 1 and reimagine the picks made by the Saint John Sea Dogs. By revisiting the selections, we aim to evaluate whether different choices could have potentially yielded a competitive edge.
Pick #3:
Actual Pick: Leighton Carruthers (32Pts)
QMJHL Queries Select: Luke Woodworth (Picked 11th) (F) 132PTS
Leighton Carruthers emerged as a standout with an impressive playoff performance in the NSMMHL, justifying Saint John's confidence in their pick. He was unanimously considered a 1st rounder. However, our model's top projected player, Luke Woodworth, did outperform over the course of the entire season and had a respectable playoff campaign of his own.
Pick #15:
Actual Pick: Nathan Drapeau (47Pts)
QMJHL Queries Select: Brayden Schmitt (Picked 34th) (D) 59PTS
Both Drapeau and Schmitt presented solid potential. Opting for Brayden Schmitt, the model's highest projected defender, seems fitting for our second 1st round pick. A slight preference for Schmitt stemmed from our pre-draft evaluations. Edge: Slightly Queries.
Pick #38:
Actual Pick: Simon Hughes (47Pts)
QMJHL Queries Select: Justin Vetrano (Picked 64th) (F) 27Pts
Here, the Sea Dogs got the upper hand with their choice of Simon Hughes. Edge: Sea Dogs.
Picks #42, 59(G), 62, 70:
As these selections didn't translate to QMJHL play, we'll swiftly highlight the model's projected players: Justin Sullivan (52), Danny Akkouche (67), Etienne Tremblay Mathieu (92), Francois James Buteau (83). Edge: Slightly Queries if a defenseman is selected from picks 42, 62, or 70.
Pick #103:
Actual Pick: Hunter Gartley (15pts)
QMJHL Queries Select: Joseph Henneberry (Picked 110th) (65pts)
Navigating a shortage of comparable defense options, let's assume we secure one from picks 42 to 70. This leaves us with 3 forwards and 2 defenders in our 8 picks, even considering D'Orazio at pick 59. Edge: Queries.
Pick #156:
(Did Not Play)
Our highest projected players at this point were Jason Desruisseaux or Charles Antoine Tremblay. However, in accordance with the rules, we assume both selections would not have played.
Pick #190:
Actual Pick: Nick LaForge (18pts)
QMJHL Queries Select: Jason Desruisseaux (Picked 226th) (F) 22pts
Both choices offer solid potential given the draft's late stage. We'll call this a draw.
Picks #228 & 246:
(Did Not Play)
Tallying the Points:
Sea Dogs: 145pts
QMJHL Queries: 305pts (excluding one of Buteau, Tremblay Mathieu, Akkouche), 325 to 342pts (with one)
Result: QMJHL Queries emerges as the winner in terms of actual points produced so far.
As we move forward in our analysis, we'll continue to explore subsequent rounds and shed light on the intriguing choices and outcomes. The next blog post, we'll highlight some things we've learned from this draft and considerations for the model going forward.
Here is a preview of the top overall skaters projected until we have this up on the website.
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